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Global Production Networks and Export Expansion: Cross-Sectoral Evidence from China

Author: Klimis Vogiatzoglou
Vol.: 2012.7
Publishing house: i) INFER
Place: Speyer, London
year: 2012
No of pages: 19
ISBN
category INFER Working Paper Series
price EUR

Given the rising importance of global production networks, this paper examines the link between a country’s extent of production sharing and a country’s export development. Using the OECD’s international input-output database on intermediate goods imports, the empirical analysis is applied to China, where international production sharing is particularly pronounced. Our findings indicate that China’s involvement in vertical production networks exerts a positive effect on China’s manufacturing exports. An important policy implication, particularly relevant for developing economies, is that a policy promoting a more extensive involvement in global production sharing may significantly improve an economy’s export performance.

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Does the Greenspan Era Provide Evidence on Leadership in the FOMC?

Author: Makram El-Shagi Alexander Jung
Vol.: 2012.6
Publishing house: i) INFER
Place: Speyer, London
year: 2012
No of pages: 42
ISBN
category INFER Working Paper Series
price EUR

This paper provides new empirical evidence on the presence of chairman dominance in the FOMC. It uses a novel data set with information on individual forecasts of FOMC members in the 1990s. The approach of this paper is to estimate individual Taylor-type reaction functions for FOMC participants based on their interest rate preferences and economic information in real-time. A bootstrap analysis, which exploits information contained in these reaction functions, constructs counterfactual distributions of disagreement among FOMC members. By comparing these distributions with the observed dissenting behaviour, we find empirical evidence in favour of an “invisible hand”, which influenced policy-makers’ preferences towards the consensus view during the committee deliberations. While several explanations for this behaviour are conceivable (e.g. informal rules, consensus tradition, joint paradigms, bias statement), during the Greenspan era the presence of a dominant chairman is the most plausible explanation for it.

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An Assessment of Fiscal Rules and Sustainability Using an Overlapping Generations Approach: An Application to Belgium

Author: Wouter van der Wielen
Vol.: 2012.5
Publishing house: i) INFER
Place: Speyer, London
year: 2012
No of pages: 37
ISBN
category INFER Working Paper Series
price EUR

Building on the work of among others Diamond (1965), a two-period overlapping generations model including income taxation, pension benefits, and public investment is set forth in order to assess Belgium’s fiscal sustainability. Moreover, the model is employed to get a better grasp of the effects of possible fiscal rules, which are among others thought to prevent a deficit bias. In particular, the model is employed to calibrate the effects of maintaining current fiscal policy, a balanced primary budget, and adhering to the golden rule of public finance. It is found that the Belgian conditions will not lead to a sustainable equilibrium under the conditions of the proposed model due to crowding out in the capital market. Furthermore, the assessed fiscal rules are preferred to the current policy even if the initial Belgian debt would be relatively low."

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How Reliable are Budget Sustainability Tests? A Case Study for Greece

Author: Christian Richter Dimitrios Paparas
Vol.: 2012.4
Publishing house: i) INFER
Place: Speyer, London
year: 2012
No of pages:
ISBN
category INFER Working Paper Series
price EUR

In this paper we try to answer if the empirical evidence on the Greek fiscal policy has been consistent with the government intertemporal budget constraint during two tested periods, 1833-2009 and 1960-2009. The recent Greek debt crisis provides a unique opportunity to test whether sustainability tests produce what they ought to produce: We know that the Greek debt is unsustainable, so do the sustainability tests show the same? We use several common approaches such as Johansen approach, DOLS, Engle-Granger approach, Bohn test and finally Trehan-Walsh approach. Our results are mixed and in contrast with our expectations, because the majority of the tests indicate sustainable fiscal policy in both tested periods. One reason for the non-performance of the sustainability tests may be that they do not include information provided by rating agencies (which may not always be rational). Another important limitation of the present value budget constraint is the assumption of infinite growth of the economy. Additionally, the budget deficit is one of the most important fiscal instruments, and based on previous data processes.

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Tracing the Link between Government Size and Growth: The Role of Public Sector Quality

Author: Daniel Oto-Peralías Diego Romero-Avila
Vol.: 2012.3
Publishing house: i) INFER
Place: Speyer, London
year: 2012
No of pages: 40
ISBN
category INFER Working Paper Series
price EUR

This paper shows evidence of strong heterogeneity in the relationship between government size and growth, depending on the quality of public sector institutions. Focusing on a wide sample of developed and developing countries over the period 1981-2005, we find that government size reduces growth when bureaucracy quality is low, whereas no significant effect is observed for sufficiently high levels of bureaucracy quality. The results hold both in cross-section and panel data analyses and are robust to a large number of robustness checks. These findings have important implications for assessing the role of government size in economic growth.

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The validity of Wagner’s Law in Greece during the last 2 centuries

Author: Christian Richter Dimitrios Paparas
Vol.: 2012.2
Publishing house: i) INFER
Place: Speyer, London
year: 2012
No of pages: 20
ISBN
category INFER Working Paper Series
price EUR

In this paper we investigate the long-run relationship between national income and government spending by using Greek data from 1833 until 2010. We use 5 different formulations of Wagner’s law (the long run tendency for government expenditure to expand relative to economic growth) and find that empirical results are supportive for Wagner’s law. The data set span covers a period of almost 2 centuries; the long data set thus ensures the reliability of our results in terms of statistical and economic conclusions. Furthermore, the data set covers the early periods of development of the Greek economy, a period of growth, industrialisation and modernisation of the economy, conditions which should be conducive to Wagner’s law. Our analysis provides evidence of long run relationship between government spending and national income, while the Granger causality tests indicate that causality runs from the national income to spending. Moreover we include tests for structural changes to take into account regime changes that occur over time. Our empirical results are in accordance with other studies examined the validity of Wagner’s law in Greece and in other economies by using long data set.

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Has the Financial Crisis Changed the Business Cycle Characteristics of the GIPSI Countries?

Author: Andrew Hughes Hallett Christian Richter
Vol.: 2012.1
Publishing house: i) INFER
Place: Speyer, London
year: 2012
No of pages: 33
ISBN
category INFER Working Paper Series
price EUR

Since the financial crisis erupted in 2008, the governments of Portugal, Ireland, Italy Greece and Spain (GIPSI) find themselves in a position where financing their debts has become increasingly difficult. As a result, these governments reduced government expenditure and/or increased taxes in order to reduce their deficits. Hence, whilst other countries in the Eurozone – notably Germany - enjoy a recovery from the financial crisis, the GIPSI countries remain in recession. It is therefore no surprise that the business cycles of the northern and southern European countries have increasingly diverged. This in itself poses already a risk for the Eurozone, as it makes the common monetary policy less effective.

In this paper we analyse these business cycles in detail. We ask whether the financial crisis has changed the characteristics of the business cycles of the GIPSI countries. For example, the austerity measures in Greece may lead to a convergence of government spending between Germany and Greece and to greater convergence of business cycles in both countries. If this is the case, then at least there is some hope that the common monetary policy will be more effective in the future. But the austerity measures could also lead to greater divergence between Greece and Germany, in which case leaving the monetary Union would not only be beneficial for Greece. It might be unavoidable.

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Downside risk and flight to quality in the currency market

Author: Victoria Dobrynskaya
Vol.: 2011.5
Publishing house: i) INFER
Place: Speyer, London
year: 2011
No of pages: 22
ISBN
category INFER Working Paper Series
price EUR

Some currencies systematically crash together with the stock market, while others serve as a „safe haven‟. This paper studies which country macroeconomic fundamentals are consistently related to the riskiness of its currency. I look at various macroeconomic variables and find that high real interest rates in a country are associated with high downside risk of its currency, while inflation rate, nominal interest rate and other variables are not that relevant. But to be a „safe haven‟ currency, both low real interest rate and low inflation rate are required. I suggest that there is a „flight to quality‟ in the currency market when the stock market goes down.

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Who and where are the co-authors? The relationship between institutional and geographical distance in scientific publications

Author: Rosamaria d’Amore Roberto Iorio Agnieszka Stawinoga
Vol.: 2011.4
Publishing house: i) INFER
Place: Speyer, London
year: 2011
No of pages: 26
ISBN
category INFER Working Paper Series
price EUR

This paper analyses the phenomenon of collaborations between university and other research institutions with industry, seen through the lens of co-autorship of scientific publications in the Italian biotech sector. We analyse a database including the publications done by the Italian biotech firms from 2003 to 2005; the institutions the authors of the publications belong to are registered and classified in four categories (firms, universities, hospitals and research centres); their localization is registered too. The main goal of our research is to analyse the relationship between geographical and institutional distance. Given that there is institutional distance if different kinds of institutions collaborate, we want to verify if such distance changes, and in what direction, when the physical distance increases. This analysis is conducted at an aggregated level, than at a more disaggregated one, taking two factors into consideration: the quality and relevance of the papers; the different nature and aims, therefore the different behaviour, of the different institutions. Regarding the empirical tools, the social network analysis is joined with the regression analysis. The more relevant results may be synthesized in this way: at a more aggregate level the direction of the relationship between spatial and institutional distance does not emerge with full statistical evidence; at a more disaggregate level the results emerge more clearly: taking into consideration the papers that receive few citations (that may be considered as results of project of limited scientific relevance or quality), the relationship between geographical and institutional distance is inverse (the variety of institutions is more limited among papers written as results of international collaborations than among papers deriving from national co-autorships); among more cited papers, the relationship is direct. On another side, taking the behaviour of different institutions into consideration, we observe an inverse relationship between spatial and institutional distance for firms, universities and research centres, a direct relationship for hospitals. This kind of analysis may shed more light on the way knowledge flows among innovative agents and should be taken into consideration by the policy maker that aims to promote research collaboration between different institutions.

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Monetary Policy Trade-Offs in a Portfolio Model with Endogenous Asset Supply

Author: Stefan Schueder
Vol.: 2011.3
Publishing house: i) INFER
Place: Speyer, London
year: 2011
No of pages: 57
ISBN
category INFER Working Paper Series
price EUR

This paper develops an open economy portfolio balance model with endogenous asset supply. Domestic producers choose an optimal capital structure and finance capital goods through credit, bonds and equity assets. Private households hold a portfolio of domestic and foreign assets, shift balances depending on risk-return considerations, and maximise real consumption in accordance with the law of one price. Within this general equilibrium model, it will be shown that central bank interventions may promote an inefficient international allocation of real capital. The application of expansive monetary interventions throughout the course of economic crises maintains the domestic stock of real capital at the cost of inflation, currency devaluation, distortions of interest rates and asset prices, and risk clusters on the central bank’s balance sheet. Exchange rate stabilising interventions have the result that the central bank can also stabilise the domestic stock of real capital. However, such interventions produce either risk clusters on the central bank’s balance sheet or changes in the domestic price level.

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CALL FOR PAPERS

INFER Workshop in Kaifeng - Extended deadline


event starting date: 2016-03-18

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NEWS


2017-02-21

Extended deadline for the INFER Annual Conference 2017

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2017-02-14

Extended deadline news

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2017-01-19

Extended deadline news

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PUBLICATIONS

Stocks or flows? New thinking about monetary transmission through the lending channel

Author: Javier Villar Burke
Publishing house: i) INFER
year: 2016

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What is Different about Urbanization in Rich and Poor Countries? Cities in Brazil, China, India and the United States

Author: Juan Pablo Chauvin Edward Glaeser Yueran Ma Kristina Tobio
Publishing house: i) INFER
year: 2016

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Taxing Vacant Apartments: Can fiscal policy reduce vacancy?

Author: Mariona Segú Benjamin Vignolles
Publishing house: i) INFER
year: 2016

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