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China and the Global Roles of Currencies

Author: John Ryan
Vol.: 2009.8
Publishing house: i) INFER
Place: Speyer, London
year: 2009
No of pages: 23
ISBN n/a
category INFER Working Paper Series
price Free to download EUR

China’s concern about its U.S. Dollar reserves is being amplified by the low returns of some of China’ investments in the U.S. which leads to a broader concern about how the current reserve system basically entails China lending to the U.S. at very low interest rates. A two-currency reserve system would potentially be even more unstable than the existing one, because of speculation moves in and out of the U.S. Dollar and the Euro depending on their return, increasing volatility. U.S.  Policymakers have started to realize that large external deficits, the dominance of the dollar, and the large capital inflows that necessarily accompany deficits and currency dominance are no longer in the U.S. national interest. The U.S. has to consider initiatives put forward over the past year by China and others to begin a serious discussion of reforming the international monetary system. This paper will examine four scenarios regarding the global currency regime of the future and the Chinese influence in this most important policy arena. It will focus on the U.S. Dollar decline as the Reserve Currency, on the Euro gaining strength slowly in a turbulent world, on the potential of the Renminbi to become a Reserve Currency, and on the future of the Super-Sovereign Reserve Currency, the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights (SDRs). Before that it will examine the role of the Renminbi in the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997 and its role in the global financial markets at that time and lessons learnt from the crisis.  The crisis had significant macro-level effects, including sharp reductions in values of currencies, stock markets, and other asset prices of several Asian countries.

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Structural Estimation of Variety Gains from Trade Integration in Asia

Author: d’Artis Kancs
Vol.: 2009.7
Publishing house: i) INFER
Place: Speyer, London
year: 2009
No of pages: 31
ISBN n/a
category INFER Working Paper Series
price Free to Download EUR

Structural Estimation of Variety Gains from Trade Integration in Asia
Abstract:  The present paper studies variety gains from trade integration in Asia. Applying a heterogenous Örm model we simulate trade integration in Asia in three different scenarios (CIFTA, ASEAN+3, and ASEAN+6). The paper makes three contributions to the literature. First, in addition to traditional gains from specialisation, we also account for gains arising from increased number of different varieties. Second, we explicitly account for di§erences in trade gains between variable and fixed trade cost reduction. Third, using a unique set of firm-level panel data we estimate the underlying trade modelís structural parameters econometrically. We find that the gains from trade integration are substantial. Reducing trade barriers by 15 percent induces trade growth up to 60 percent, which due to the additional extensive margin is more than in trade models with representative firms. Similarly, due due additional welfare gains from variety growth, the gains from trade are up to 17 percent higher than in models with homogenous products.

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The Factor Content of Heterogeneous Firm Trade

Author: d’Artis Kancs Pavel Ciaian
Vol.: 2009.6
Publishing house: i) INFER
Place: Speyer, London
year: 2009
No of pages: 34
ISBN n/a
category INFER Working Paper Series
price Free to Download EUR

In this paper we study the determinants of the factor content of the CEE agricultural trade. Examining empirically three hypothesis, which relate cross- country di§erences in technology, relative factor abundance and transaction costs and market imperfections to the factor content of trade, we find that the first two hypotheses are confirmed by the ma jority of the developed EU countries, but rejected by roughly one half of the CEE transition country pairs. Second, we find that when accounting for transaction costs of farm (re)organisation, both hypotheses are confirmed by the ma jority of the CEE country pairs. These findings provide empirical evidence of market imperfections, and particularly, of transaction costs of farm (re)organisation in the CEE.

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The demand for football tickets depending on the number of clubs in a city – Empirical evidence from Germany –

Author: Markus Breuer
Vol.: 2009.5
Publishing house: i) INFER
Place: Speyer, London
year: 2009
No of pages: 18
ISBN n/a
category INFER Working Paper Series
price free todownlad EUR

The demand for football tickets in European top-leagues has been subject of several studies within the last years e. g. in France, England and Germany. These papers focussed mainly on single matches and the significance of factors like uncertainty, performance of the clubs or date and time of a competition. In contrast this paper tries to build up a simple model to estimate the average number of visitors in the course of a whole season. Moreover the market entrance of a second club is considered. While in stage one an old-established club represents a regional monopolist, in stage two another club qualifies itself for playing in the first division what breaks up the old monopolistic position. Finally the model assumptions are compared to empirical findings from Germany and its major league.

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Public Goods, Public Policy and Taxation

Author: David Duffy and Edward Shinnick
Vol.: 4
Publishing house: v) LIT Verlag
Place: Berlin, Germany
year: 2009
No of pages: 216
ISBN 978-3-643-10250-8
category Archives (LIT)
price 39.90 EUR

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Monetary Policy, Trade and Convergence

Author: Willem Spanjers
Vol.: 2
Publishing house: v) LIT Verlag
Place: Berlin, Germany
year: 2009
No of pages: 208
ISBN 978-3-643-10021-4
category Archives (LIT)
price 39.90 EUR

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Forecasting Romanian Financial System Stability using a Stochastic Simulation Model

Author: Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu
Vol.: 2009.4
Publishing house: i) INFER
Place: Speyer, London
year: 2009
No of pages: 22
ISBN n/a
category INFER Working Paper Series
price Free to Download EUR

The aim of this paper is to develop an aggregate stability index for the Romanian financial system, which is meant to enhance the set of analysis used by authorities to assess the financial system stability. The index takes into consideration indicators related to financial system development, vulnerability, soundness and also indicators which characterise the international economic climate. Another purpose of our study is to forecast the financial stability level, using a stochastic simulation model. The outcome of the study shows an improvement of the Romanian financial system stability during the period 1999-2007. The constructed aggregate index captures the financial turbulences periods like 1998-1999 Romanian banking crisis and 2007 subprime crisis. The forecasted values of the index show a deterioration of financial stability in 2009, influenced by the estimated decline of the financial and economic activity.

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Economic Integration, International Trade and the Role of Foreign Direct Investment

Author: Joao Paulo Cerdeira Bento
Vol.: 3
Publishing house: v) LIT Verlag
Place: Berlin, Germany
year: 2009
No of pages: 176
ISBN 978-3-643-10084-9
category Archives (LIT)
price 39.90 EUR

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Determinants of Export Specialization in ICT Products: A Cross-Country Analysis

Author: Klimis Vogiatzoglou
Vol.: 2009.3
Publishing house: i) INFER
Place: Speyer, London
year: 2009
No of pages: 22
ISBN n/a
category INFER Working Paper Series
price Free to Download EUR

In this paper the determinants of ICT export specialization are investigated with a panel- econometric analysis, which includes 28 countries. ICT exports are broken down into three broad ICT product groups (electronic data processing machines, integrated circuits and electronic components, and telecommunications equipment), and the determinants are examined for each of the above product categories. Our results indicate that technology factors, such as Research & Development expenditure and human capital constitute significant determinants. However, other deterministic factors, related to more recent trade theories, seem to be relatively more important.

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IMMIGRATION AND DISCRIMINATION IN A FORMER EMIGRANT COUNTRY: THE CASE OF SPAIN

Author: José-Ignacio Antón Rafael Muñoz de Bustillo Miguel Carrera
Vol.: 2009.2
Publishing house: i) INFER
Place: Speyer, London
year: 2009
No of pages: 20
ISBN n/a
category INFER Working Paper Series
price free to download EUR

This article analyses the immigrant-native wage differentials in Spain, which only recently has become a host country. The paper exploits the Earnings Structure Survey 2006, which is the first nationally representative sample of both foreign and Spanish employees. Using the Machado-Mata econometric procedure, wage differentials between locals and foreigners are decomposed into the gap related to characteristics and the one due to different returns on endowments (i.e., discrimination). We find that, in absolute terms, the latter component grows across wage distribution, reflecting the existence of a kind of glass ceiling consistent with the evidence of over-education found by previous research.

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CALL FOR PAPERS

INFER Workshop in Kaifeng - Extended deadline


event starting date: 2016-03-18

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NEWS


2017-01-06

News in 2017

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2016-12-07

Extended deadline for Call for Papers - ECR

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2016-12-06

New Events, Publications and Post-Doc Position

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PUBLICATIONS

Stocks or flows? New thinking about monetary transmission through the lending channel

Author: Javier Villar Burke
Publishing house: i) INFER
year: 2016

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What is Different about Urbanization in Rich and Poor Countries? Cities in Brazil, China, India and the United States

Author: Juan Pablo Chauvin Edward Glaeser Yueran Ma Kristina Tobio
Publishing house: i) INFER
year: 2016

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Taxing Vacant Apartments: Can fiscal policy reduce vacancy?

Author: Mariona Segú Benjamin Vignolles
Publishing house: i) INFER
year: 2016

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