Publications in: i) INFER


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i) INFER

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Structural Estimation of Variety Gains from Trade Integration in Asia

Author: d’Artis Kancs
Vol.: 2009.7
Publishing house: i) INFER
Place: Speyer, London
year: 2009
No of pages: 31
ISBN n/a
category INFER Working Paper Series
price Free to Download EUR

Structural Estimation of Variety Gains from Trade Integration in Asia
Abstract:  The present paper studies variety gains from trade integration in Asia. Applying a heterogenous Örm model we simulate trade integration in Asia in three different scenarios (CIFTA, ASEAN+3, and ASEAN+6). The paper makes three contributions to the literature. First, in addition to traditional gains from specialisation, we also account for gains arising from increased number of different varieties. Second, we explicitly account for di§erences in trade gains between variable and fixed trade cost reduction. Third, using a unique set of firm-level panel data we estimate the underlying trade modelís structural parameters econometrically. We find that the gains from trade integration are substantial. Reducing trade barriers by 15 percent induces trade growth up to 60 percent, which due to the additional extensive margin is more than in trade models with representative firms. Similarly, due due additional welfare gains from variety growth, the gains from trade are up to 17 percent higher than in models with homogenous products.

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The Factor Content of Heterogeneous Firm Trade

Author: d’Artis Kancs Pavel Ciaian
Vol.: 2009.6
Publishing house: i) INFER
Place: Speyer, London
year: 2009
No of pages: 34
ISBN n/a
category INFER Working Paper Series
price Free to Download EUR

In this paper we study the determinants of the factor content of the CEE agricultural trade. Examining empirically three hypothesis, which relate cross- country di§erences in technology, relative factor abundance and transaction costs and market imperfections to the factor content of trade, we find that the first two hypotheses are confirmed by the ma jority of the developed EU countries, but rejected by roughly one half of the CEE transition country pairs. Second, we find that when accounting for transaction costs of farm (re)organisation, both hypotheses are confirmed by the ma jority of the CEE country pairs. These findings provide empirical evidence of market imperfections, and particularly, of transaction costs of farm (re)organisation in the CEE.

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The demand for football tickets depending on the number of clubs in a city – Empirical evidence from Germany –

Author: Markus Breuer
Vol.: 2009.5
Publishing house: i) INFER
Place: Speyer, London
year: 2009
No of pages: 18
ISBN n/a
category INFER Working Paper Series
price free todownlad EUR

The demand for football tickets in European top-leagues has been subject of several studies within the last years e. g. in France, England and Germany. These papers focussed mainly on single matches and the significance of factors like uncertainty, performance of the clubs or date and time of a competition. In contrast this paper tries to build up a simple model to estimate the average number of visitors in the course of a whole season. Moreover the market entrance of a second club is considered. While in stage one an old-established club represents a regional monopolist, in stage two another club qualifies itself for playing in the first division what breaks up the old monopolistic position. Finally the model assumptions are compared to empirical findings from Germany and its major league.

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Forecasting Romanian Financial System Stability using a Stochastic Simulation Model

Author: Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu
Vol.: 2009.4
Publishing house: i) INFER
Place: Speyer, London
year: 2009
No of pages: 22
ISBN n/a
category INFER Working Paper Series
price Free to Download EUR

The aim of this paper is to develop an aggregate stability index for the Romanian financial system, which is meant to enhance the set of analysis used by authorities to assess the financial system stability. The index takes into consideration indicators related to financial system development, vulnerability, soundness and also indicators which characterise the international economic climate. Another purpose of our study is to forecast the financial stability level, using a stochastic simulation model. The outcome of the study shows an improvement of the Romanian financial system stability during the period 1999-2007. The constructed aggregate index captures the financial turbulences periods like 1998-1999 Romanian banking crisis and 2007 subprime crisis. The forecasted values of the index show a deterioration of financial stability in 2009, influenced by the estimated decline of the financial and economic activity.

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Determinants of Export Specialization in ICT Products: A Cross-Country Analysis

Author: Klimis Vogiatzoglou
Vol.: 2009.3
Publishing house: i) INFER
Place: Speyer, London
year: 2009
No of pages: 22
ISBN n/a
category INFER Working Paper Series
price Free to Download EUR

In this paper the determinants of ICT export specialization are investigated with a panel- econometric analysis, which includes 28 countries. ICT exports are broken down into three broad ICT product groups (electronic data processing machines, integrated circuits and electronic components, and telecommunications equipment), and the determinants are examined for each of the above product categories. Our results indicate that technology factors, such as Research & Development expenditure and human capital constitute significant determinants. However, other deterministic factors, related to more recent trade theories, seem to be relatively more important.

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IMMIGRATION AND DISCRIMINATION IN A FORMER EMIGRANT COUNTRY: THE CASE OF SPAIN

Author: José-Ignacio Antón Rafael Muñoz de Bustillo Miguel Carrera
Vol.: 2009.2
Publishing house: i) INFER
Place: Speyer, London
year: 2009
No of pages: 20
ISBN n/a
category INFER Working Paper Series
price free to download EUR

This article analyses the immigrant-native wage differentials in Spain, which only recently has become a host country. The paper exploits the Earnings Structure Survey 2006, which is the first nationally representative sample of both foreign and Spanish employees. Using the Machado-Mata econometric procedure, wage differentials between locals and foreigners are decomposed into the gap related to characteristics and the one due to different returns on endowments (i.e., discrimination). We find that, in absolute terms, the latter component grows across wage distribution, reflecting the existence of a kind of glass ceiling consistent with the evidence of over-education found by previous research.

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Educational Thresholds and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Brazilian States

Author: Tulio A. Cravo Elias Soukiazis
Vol.: 2009.1
Publishing house: i) INFER
Place: Speyer, London
year: 2009
No of pages: 27
ISBN n/a
category INFER Working Paper Series
price Free to download EUR

This paper examines the convergence process in Brazil over the period of 1985-2004, giving a special attention to the role of human capital as a conditioning factor to convergence. It examines how different levels of human capital influence growth in different regions of Brazil. Different measures of human capital are used in the growth regressions and the results show that they play a significant role in explaining the growth process. The evidence indicates that different levels of human capital have different impacts on the per capita income growth, depending on the level of development of the states. Lower levels of human capital explain better the convergence among the less developed states and higher levels of human capital are more adequate among the more developed states. The impact of the relative intermediate levels of human capital on growth is stronger in all samples, suggesting the existence of threshold effect in education.

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Social Energy - A New Form of Perceiving Capital in Postmodern Economy

Author: Artur Mazurkiewicz
Vol.: 2008.4
Publishing house: i) INFER
Place: Speyer, London
year: 2008
No of pages: 22
ISBN n/a
category INFER Working Paper Series
price Free to download EUR

The presented paper deals with the issue of social creation of knowledge in the postmodern economic order. The concept of beneficients as a core idea of this conception in connection with thermodynamic analogy in interdisciplinary problem leads to the materialistic and intellectual dual analysis of sustainable phenomenon of development and creation of knowledge. The paper discusses the possibility of a new way of development of institutional economy in the direction of knowledge economy and the change in an approach to an organisation from the traditional systemic to a cooperating community. The presented considerations are a germ of intellectual infrastructure and supporting the process of structural learning and sustainable development with artificial intelligence. It has been suggested that social energy should be considered as an alternative way of perceiving development.

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The Impact of R&D Spillovers on Export Value: Does the Transmission Channel matter?

Author: Jan Van Hove
Vol.: 2008.3
Publishing house: i) INFER
Place: Speyer, London
year: 2008
No of pages: 34
ISBN n/a
category INFER Working Paper Series
price Free to download EUR

There is overwhelming evidence in the literature that open economies benefit from spillover effects from foreign R&D efforts. These effects increase in particular total factor productivity. Several transmission channels have been detected and studied intensively. Most of them are related to foreign direct investments or international trade. These real economic phenomena are themselves affected by spillovers, either indirectly through their effect on total factor productivity or directly through, for example, increased business contacts between investors, traders and producers.  In this empirical paper we study the effects of R&D spillovers on exports within the OECD. Previous evidence pointed to the crucial role of the transmission channel for such spillovers. Therefore we distinguish between trade-related and foreign-direct-investment related channels and indicators. By doing so we are able to determine the relevance and importance of each of the suggested channels and measures. We control for alternative determinants of export value by extending the well-accepted gravity model for international trade by incorporating R&D spillovers in the standard gravity specification. Our results indicate that – at least at the macro-level – the choice of the transmission channel matters. In particular we find clear evidence that imports are an important transmission channel for technological spillovers, whereas there is only weak evidence in favour of any role for foreign direct investments. Hence these findings simply that openness to trade is a better policy in order to benefit from foreign knowledge than openness to investments.

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Asymmetries in Heterogeneous Integrated Areas: Evidence from Intra-EU Sectoral Trade

Author: Helena Marques
Vol.: 2008.2
Publishing house: i) INFER
Place: Speyer, London
year: 2008
No of pages: 21
ISBN n/a
category INFER Working Paper Series
price Free to download EUR

This paper estimates gravity models for both directions of trade between the EU-15 and the CEEC-10. The two groups form a heterogeneous integrated area (EU-27) with respect to country size, income levels, relative factor endowments and a different history of economic systems. The estimation was conducted on industries with different degrees of scale economies and factor-intensities in the presence of both spatial (distance and borders) and non-spatial (Eastern enlargements and Euro membership) trade costs. The results highlight the asymmetry in intra-bloc trade when the latter is heterogeneous: country size, income, factor endowments and the various trade barriers or facilitators are found to be significant determinants of intra-EU trade but to an extent that is country and industry-specific. The results also show how this heterogeneity eliminates the equivalence between exports and imports as the dependent variable in gravity models and makes the results sensitive to the definition of the bilateral flows to be estimated.

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