Publications in: ii) Various Peer Reviewed Journals


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ii) Various Peer Reviewed Journals

Is there Clustering among the Eurozone Economies? Evidence from how the EU’s New Member States are Converging

Author: Andrew Hughes Hallett Christian Richter
Vol.: Journal of Economic Policy Reform 14 (2), pp. 127-150
Publishing house: ii) Various Peer Reviewed Journals
Place: Various
year: 2011
No of pages: 14
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category Origninal Article
price EUR

Optimal Currency Area theory stresses the importance of the co-movement of business cycles among Eurozone member states for a successful common currency. In this paper, we show how to decompose economic cycles in a time-frequency framework in order to compare the coherences and phase shifts for Hungary, Poland, Czech Republic, Germany and France. We find that, there has been some convergence on the Eurozone economy at short cycle lengths, but little convergence in long cycles. We argue that this shows evidence of divergence in the Eurozone into two groups: a German cluster and the periphery economies.

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Labour Migration in the Enlarged EU: A New Economic Geography Approach

Author: d Artis Kancs
Vol.: Journal of Economic Policy Reform 14 (2), pp. 171-188
Publishing house: ii) Various Peer Reviewed Journals
Place: Various
year: 2011
No of pages: 18
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category Origninal Article
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This paper studies the impact of migration policy liberalisation on international labour migration in the enlarged EU in a structural NEG approach. The liberalisation of migration policy would induce an additional 1.80 - 2.98 percent of the total EU workforce to change their country of location, with most of migrant workers relocating from the East to the West. The average net migration rate is decreasing in the level of integration, suggesting that from an economic point of view no regulatory policy responses are necessary to labour migration in the enlarged EU.

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Real Economic Activity Leading Indicators; Should we have paid more attention?

Author: Geraldine Ryan Edward Shinnick
Vol.: Journal of Economic Policy Reform 14 (2), pp. 105-125
Publishing house: ii) Various Peer Reviewed Journals
Place: Various
year: 2011
No of pages: 21
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category Origninal Article
price EUR

The ability to predict business cycle activity is an invaluable skill for governments and policy makers alike, especially before an economy enters a downturn. We analyse causality relationships between key leading economic indicators and economic growth for three countries from 1970 to 2010. We find that while many indicators do not help explain current movements in GDP growth, lags of these indicators do. In addition, the direction of the change and the size of the change in the lagged economic indicators are very important in many cases.  This is particularly true for housing indicators.

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Chinese Competition in OECD Markets: Impact on the Export Position and Export Strategy of OECD Countries

Author: Filip Abraham Jan van Hove
Vol.: Journal of Economic Policy Reform 14 (2), pp. 151-170
Publishing house: ii) Various Peer Reviewed Journals
Place: Various
year: 2011
No of pages: 20
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category Origninal Article
price EUR

China has been rapidly increasing the exports of manufactured products to OECD markets. In this paper we obtain evidence that the rise of China decreases the export market shares of OECD countries in other OECD markets. We also assess strategies of OECD countries to respond to increasing Chinese competition. OECD countries that upgrade the quality of their export goods strengthen their export position.  The evidence for a strategy of variety expansion is less convincing. These conclusions hold for total manufacturing trade. At the sectoral level, the impact of variety expansion and quality upgrading appears to be very heterogeneous.

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Is there a link between homeownership and unemployment? Evidence from German regional data

Author: Oliver Lerbs
Vol.: Special Issue International Economics and Economic Policy (fortcoming)
Publishing house: ii) Various Peer Reviewed Journals
Place: Various
year: 2011
No of pages: 20
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category Origninal Article
price EUR

Using German regional data for 1998, 2002 and 2006, this study examines the Oswald hypothesis, the conjecture that high levels of homeownership are linked to inferior outcomes in the labor market. Applying a set of control variables, three different econometric models are specified and estimated: a cross-sectional model, a pooled data model, and a model taking into account unobserved regional heterogeneity. Once unobserved regional effects are accounted for, the findings are consistent with Oswald’s hypothesis. The economic significance of the relationship is at best marginal, however.

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Mind the gap—German motherhood risks in figures and game theory issues

Author: Christina Boll
Vol.: Special Issue International Economics and Economic Polic (fortcoming)
Publishing house: ii) Various Peer Reviewed Journals
Place: Various
year: 2011
No of pages: 20
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category Origninal Article
price EUR

After childbirth, while parents are delighted at public cash transfers like the German ‘Elterngeld’ (parental leave benefit), the decline in mothers’ earnings capacity is an awkward issue that tends to hover in the background. This paper aims firstly to make a contribution to quantifying West German mothers’ foregone gross earnings that stem from intermittent labor market participation, due to the birth of their first child. Secondly, it discusses behavioral outcomes of the resulting implicit child costs in a dynamic bargaining model of household decisions. The regression results of a Mincer-type wage equation, with German Socio-Economic Panel Data (West) for the period 1984–2005 and correcting for sample selection (Two-step Heckman), indicate considerable wage penalties due to birth-related employment withdrawal. On the closure of the fecund window, mothers suffer gross hourly wage cuts of up to 25%, compared to their equally educated, non-stop full-time employed counterparts, and the total of annualized losses amounts to as much as 201,000 Euros. Although foregone earnings do not matter as much in stable partnerships, they turn out to be a veritable asymmetric specialization risk that can prevent women from having children, if divorce seems sufficiently probable.

 

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An evolutionary algorithm for the estimation of threshold vector error correction models

Author: Makram El-Shagi
Vol.: Special Issue International Economics and Economic Policy (fortcoming)
Publishing house: ii) Various Peer Reviewed Journals
Place: Various
year: 2011
No of pages: 22
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category Origninal Article
price EUR

We develop an evolutionary algorithm to estimate Threshold Vector Error Correction models (TVECM) with more than two cointegrated variables. Since disregarding a threshold in cointegration models renders standard approaches to the estimation of the cointegration vectors inefficient, TVECM necessitate a simultaneous estimation of the cointegration vector(s) and the threshold. As far as two cointegrated variables are considered this is commonly achieved by a grid search. However, grid search quickly becomes computationally unfeasible if more than two variables are cointegrated. Therefore, the likelihood function has to be maximized using heuristic approaches. Depending on the precise problem structure the evolutionary approach developed in the present paper for this purpose saves 90 to 99 per cent of the computation time of a grid search.

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Negative nominal interest rates: history and current proposals

Author: Cordelius Ilgmann Martin Menner
Vol.: Special Issue International Economics and Economic Policy (fortcoming)
Publishing house: ii) Various Peer Reviewed Journals
Place: Various
year: 2011
No of pages: 23
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category Origninal Article
price EUR

Given the renewed interest in negative interest rates on base money—or equivalently ‘taxing money’—as a means for overcoming the zero bound on short-term nominal interest rates, this article reviews the history of negative nominal interest rates starting from the ‘taxing money’ proposal of Silvio Gesell up to current proposals that received popular attention in the wake of the financial crisis of 2007/ 2008. It is demonstrated that ‘taxing money’ proposals have a long intellectual history and that instead of being the conjecture of a monetary crank, they are a serious policy proposal. In a second step, the article points out that besides the more popular debate on a Gesell tax as a means to remove the zero bound on nominal interest rates, there is a class of neoclassical search models that advocates a negative tax on money as efficiency enhancing. This strand of the literature has so far been largely ignored by the policy debate on negative interest rates.

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