INFER Workshops

3rd INFER-Workshop on Financial Markets: Stock Markets: Impact of Macroeconomic Developments

From: 2002-03-01 to: 2002-03-01
Place: Frankfurt am Main, Germany

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Stock markets have been highly volatile during the last 2 years and suffered a deep depreciation after a strong increase until spring 2000. But behind this overview there is a very differentiated regional and sector picture. Which macroeconomic factors lay behind these and future stock market developments? This were the question the INFER workshop analysed.

Until the end of 2000 there was the hope for a technology driven New Economy in the US, offering high growth rates without inflationary pressure. This helped - not only, but especially - the tech stocks to increase their prices substantially. Furthermore it was argued that pension reforms and the increasing age of industrialised countries populations will lead to a substantial inflow to stock markets. In contrast, the US economy has suffered a hard landing. Also in the euro-zone growth rates have cooled down substantially. In the US, until summer 2001 the Federal Reserve Bank brought interest rates down in a never before seen velocity by 275 bp. within less than half a year whereas the ECB decided to cut interest rates by only 25 bp. But the interest rate cuts were not able to help the stock markets to recover.

With this background, the main questions that arose for the workshop were:

1. Is monetary policy unable or unwilling to move stock markets?
2. What impact do Pension Reforms and demographic developments have?
3. What influences do economic growth and leading indicators have on stock markets in the US and in Europe?
4. Where are the differences between tech stocks and blue chips?
5. How to do asset allocation in the business cycle?

The answers to these questions were given from well known experts from scientific research institutes and private banks.

Target group

Everybody working in the area or interested in the field of stock markets was invited to attend the workshop. Thus analysts of financial institutes, members of research institutes, academics of universities and advanced students were most welcome.


9:00 – 9:10
Dr. Michael H. Stierle, INFER and Oppenheim Research, Köln

9:10 – 10:00
The Impact of Pension Reforms and Demography on Stock Markets
Dr. Joachim Winter, Universität Mannheim, Mannheim

10:00 – 10:50
Monetary Policy and Stock Markets
Dr. Thorsten Polleit, Barclays Capital Germany, Frankfurt, PD Dr. Martin Leschke, Universität Münster

10:50 – 11:10
Coffee break

11:10 – 12:00
Impact of Macroeconomic Indicators on US Stock Markets
Frank Hübner, Oppenheim Research, Köln

12:00 – 13:30

13:30 – 14:20
How do DAX and NEMAX react to macroeconomic news?
Dr. Michael Schröder, Centre for European Economic Research, Mannheim

14:20 – 15:10
A Fundamental Approach to Forecast the German Stock Market
Stefan Bielmeier, Deutsche Bank Global Markets Research, Frankfurt

15:10 – 15:30
Coffee break

15:30 – 16:20
Sector Allocation in the Business Cycle
Klaus Schlote, Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein, Frankfurt

16:20 – 17:00
Final discussion


All papers presented at the workshop have been in INFER Studies Vol. 7 by the Verlag für Wissenschaft und Forschung. Click here for more information.


The workshop took place at Sal. Oppenheim, Königsberger Str. 29, Frankfurt am Main, Germany.





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